A recuperação do PIB brasileiro em recessões: uma visão comparativa

02/05/2019

1- Introdução

O atual ritmo de recuperação da atividade econômica no Brasil tem se revelado frustrante. O Comitê de Datação de Ciclos Econômicos (CODACE) da FGV faz a cronologia, em bases trimestrais, dos ciclos de negócios no Brasil desde 1980. Ao longo de quase quatro décadas, o Brasil enfrentou nove períodos de queda do PIB, conforme indicado na tabela 1.

Tabela 1: Recessões no Brasil desde 1980 – Duração e Amplitude das quedas do PIB (*)

Fonte: Codace/FGV
(*) Dados de PIB dessazonalizados
(**) Transcorridos 8 trimestres após a recessão de 2T/2014-4T/2016, a economia brasileira ainda não retornou ao nível pré-crise

Das nove recessões identificadas, as mais longevas e profundas, em ordem cronológica, foram as seguintes: i) entre 1T/1981 e 1T/1983, com duração de 9 trimestres e queda acumulada da economia de 8,5%, no contexto de crise da dívida externa dos países da América Latina; ii) entre 3T/1989 e 1T/1992, com duração de 11 trimestres e queda acumulada do PIB de 7,7%, em um ambiente de restrição de liquidez advindo do Plano Collor; e iii) o episódio recente,  com duração de 11 trimestres e contração acumulada de 8,2%, entre 2T/2014 e 4T/2016.

O objetivo desta nota é fazer uma análise do processo de recuperação da economia brasileira no pós-recessão de 2014/2016, relativamente aos demais períodos similares desde 1980. Além disso, compara-se o atual episódio com as recessões ocorridas nos países da periferia da Zona do Euro após a crise financeira de 2008. Por fim, faz-se um exercício para avaliar quando a economia brasileira poderá recuperará seus níveis de PIB anteriores ao início da última recessão.

2- Ciclos de Recessão e Padrões de Recuperação Brasileiros

O Gráfico 1 compara a última recessão com os dois períodos recessivos mais intensos do Brasil e também com a média das nove recessões ocorridas desde 1980. Para viabilizar a comparação, toma-se como base 100 o trimestre imediatamente anterior ao início de cada recessão. Esse tipo de exercício é útil para mostrar a gravidade do momento atual.

Gráfico 1: Padrão de evolução do PIB brasileiro em recessões
(Pico imediatamente anterior ao início da recessão, T = 100, série com ajuste sazonal)

Fonte: Elaboração própria a partir de dados do Ipeadata, Codace/FGV e IBGE

Considerando a média de todas as recessões (linha roxa), a economia brasileira teve quedas de PIB relativamente pequenas (perda de 2,5%) e de rápida duração (4 trimestres), seguidas de recuperações consistentes. A recuperação do nível do PIB pré-crise geralmente ocorreu 7 trimestres depois, isto é, quase dois anos após o início da recessão.

A recessão de 1981-1983 (linha azul) não foi apenas mais pronunciada do que a média das contrações brasileiras, mas também apresentou uma espécie de “doudle dip”, ou recuperação em “W”, em que a economia ensaia uma retomada e, logo depois, entra novamente em contração. Foi somente a partir do 10º trimestre depois de iniciada a recessão que a economia passou a se recuperar de forma ininterrupta, retornando a seus níveis pré-recessão apenas 16 trimestres (o que equivale a 4 anos) depois de iniciada a contração do PIB.

Por sua vez, a recessão 1989-1992 (linha cinza) também apresentou queda rápida e profunda da atividade. Porém, a recuperação foi bem irregular, com dois movimentos de aceleração e posterior contração. Esse processo claudicante esteve ligado à implementação do Plano Collor, no 1T/1990, com forte restrição de liquidez aos agentes econômicos. Foi somente a partir do 12º trimestre que a recuperação, de fato, aconteceu. A economia recuperou seus níveis pré-recessão apenas 18 trimestres depois (ou seja após 4,5 anos).

Já a contração de 2014-2016 (linha vermelha) foi bem diferente tanto da média das recessões anteriores quanto daqueles episódios mais profundos já mencionados. Primeiro, porque a queda de PIB foi praticamente contínua ao longo de quase 3 anos. Segundo, porque a recuperação se caracteriza por uma lentidão sem precedentes em nossa história. Após 19 trimestres do início da recessão, ou seja, quase 5 anos depois, a economia brasileira ainda se encontra mais de 5% abaixo de seu nível do início de 2014. Comparativamente à média das recessões brasileiras, o nível atual do PIB do Brasil encontra-se, depois de 19 trimestres após o início da contração, 12,6% abaixo do padrão histórico de recuperação (94,9 contra 106,9).

3- Recessão Brasileira vs Recessão na Periferia da Zona do Euro

A recessão brasileira ocorrida entre 2T/2014 e 4T2016 foi, como visto, intensa e duradoura. Sua característica mais notável, no entanto, tem sido seu padrão bastante lento de recuperação, sem precedentes em nossa história. Dessa forma, um exercício interessante é comparar este processo com episódios semelhantes de outros países.

O Gráfico 2 coloca em perspectiva a atual dinâmica de recuperação da economia brasileira vis-à-vis aquela ocorrida nos países da periferia da Zona do Euro (PIGS – Portugal, Itália, Grécia e Espanha) após a crise financeira de 2008.

Gráfico 2: Comparação da Recessão/Recuperação atual do Brasil com a dos PIGS
(Pico imediatamente anterior ao início da recessão, T = 100, série com ajuste sazonal)

 Fonte: Elaboração própria a partir de dados da Bloomberg

Três observações podem ser extraídas do Gráfico 2: i) a velocidade com que a economia brasileira se contraiu até seu vale (ou seja, em 11 trimestres) foi mais intensa que a desse conjunto de países no mesmo intervalo de tempo; ii) a magnitude da recessão brasileira (variação do pico ao vale) guarda proporção com as ocorridas em Portugal, Itália e Espanha, porém foi bem menos intensa do que a da Grécia; iii) passados 19 trimestres, a economia brasileira está um pouco melhor do que estavam Portugal, Itália e Espanha, a despeito de haver diferenças fundamentais entre essas economias.

Como se sabe, Portugal, Itália e Espanha são países integrantes da Zona do Euro e que não dispunham dos instrumentos anticíclicos (sobretudo monetários) que a economia brasileira tem atualmente sob sua disposição. Ainda assim, como visto no Gráfico 2, o drama econômico brasileiro não se distancia muito do observado em países que ficaram mundialmente famosos pela profundidade de suas recessões.

4- Quando se dará a completa recuperação brasileira?

Depois de abordar a profundidade e a lenta recuperação atual da economia brasileira, uma pergunta natural que surge é: quando ela retornará aos seus níveis pré-recessão? Com a intenção de responder a essa pergunta, o Gráfico 3 traça duas possíveis trajetórias de crescimento para o Brasil nos próximos anos. A primeira com a mediana das projeções de mercado extraídas do Boletim Focus do Banco Central. A segunda mantendo constante o ritmo de crescimento da economia brasileira dos últimos dois anos.

Com a trajetória de crescimento esperada pelo mercado, a economia brasileira retornaria a seu nível de produção vigente no 1T/2014 apenas no 4T/2020, isto é, após 27 trimestres (ou seja, quase 7 anos depois). Por sua vez, se o atual ritmo de crescimento da economia for mantido, a recuperação integral do nível de produção ocorreria apenas no 3T/2023, ou seja, depois de 38 trimestres do início da recessão, o que equivale a quase uma década (9,5 anos).

Gráfico 3: Trajetórias de Recuperação para o Brasil – Projeções de Mercado vs Ritmo Atual
(Pico imediatamente anterior ao início da recessão, T = 100, série com ajuste sazonal)

Fonte: Elaboração própria a partir de dados do Boletim Focus do dia 29/03/2019.

5- Conclusão

O Brasil vivenciou, entre 2T/2014 e 4T/2016, a recessão mais longa e a segunda mais profunda dos últimos 40 anos. Não bastasse isso, a recuperação tem ocorrido de maneira extremamente lenta. Já foram transcorridos 19 trimestres após o início da retração da atividade, e a economia ainda está mais de 5% abaixo de seus níveis pré-recessão. O Brasil hoje está 12,6% abaixo do que estaria se a recuperação atual fosse similar à média das recuperações anteriores.

Além disso, o atual episódio recessivo brasileiro guarda paralelo com as contrações observadas em alguns países da periferia da Zona do Euro, que ocorreram no pós-crise de 2008. A velocidade com que a economia brasileira contraiu, atingindo seu vale, foi maior do que a desse conjunto de países. A perda acumulada de PIB e, posteriormente, sua trajetória lenta de recuperação, é próxima às de Portugal, Itália e Espanha.

Por fim, uma questão importante é saber quando ocorrerá a recuperação integral da economia brasileira, com a volta de seus níveis de produção aos patamares pré-recessão. A julgar pelas atuais projeções de mercado, que embutem aceleração da atividade nos próximos anos, o ciclo de recuperação completo se daria em quase 7 anos (4T/2020). Já se o país mantiver o ritmo de recuperação observado ao longo dos anos de 2017 e 2018, o retorno completo do PIB ao patamar pré-crise somente ocorrerá no 3T/2023, ou seja, quase 10 anos depois.


As opiniões expressas neste artigo são de responsabilidade exclusiva dos autores, não refletindo necessariamente a opinião institucional da FGV. 

Comentários

Simon Salama
Parabéns pelo trabalho. Precisa circular entre os nossos congressistas, para chamar-lhes à responsabilidade de votarem as matérias tão relevantes, que permitam convergir nossa recuperação ao que, ainda, é a expectativa do mercado
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The change will take effect next school year, making this <br> <br> spring's graduating class the last to be called the Redmen.A group <br> <br> of 70 staff, students and alumni have met several times since April to discuss what the high school's <br> <br> new name and logo should be.Last week they settled on a new identity <br> <br> which they plan to publicly unveil at a school <br> <br> pep rally next Tuesday.In preparation for the re branding,<br> <br> the school has ripped out its gym floor which bears the Redmen logo and name and Hanke says <br> <br> he hopes to have the space updated by the fall.Hanke says since the public found out about the changes, the phone has been ringing off the hook with <br> <br> people asking him to reserve Redmen memorabilia for them."A school with 91 years of tradition and history, there is lots of proud community members that just want to hang on to their little piece of Bedford Road's history," he said..<br> <br> cheap nfl jerseys<br> <br> <br> <br> Cheap Jerseys free shipping It measures 262 feet long and 26 feet wide.<br> <br> It is situated between two parallel mounds with benches that are a foot tall and about 8 feet deep that <br> <br> run along the mounds. 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Kevin Brown, chairman of the Mohegan Tribe, said <br> <br> the name references the tribe's history;<br> <br> Mohegan Tribe was once part of the Wolf Clan of the Delaware Nation..<br> <br> Cheap Jerseys from china<br> <br> <br> <br> cheap nfl jerseys Get football updates directly to your inbox+ SubscribeThank you for subscribing!Could not subscribe, try again laterInvalid EmailDid <br> <br> the sight of Mario Balotelli swapping shirts at half time sicken you?Former players and pundits queued up to hammer the <br> <br> Liverpool striker who seemed more concerned with collecting a Real Madrid top than the 3 0 score line.In reality,<br> <br> Pepe asked Balotelli for his jersey, and complaints about his actions are <br> <br> simply a channel for the many problems Liverpool and Brendan Rodgers are facing this season.You'll have noticed most of those offended <br> <br> by the shirt swap are players of an era 15 years or more ago.Those were days when they ran out to play with fire and <br> <br> hate in their eyes, thinking nothing of a crunching tackle, <br> <br> scores to settle or even a punch up.The Balotelli incident poses a question. Do footballers <br> <br> dislike each other enough to play out the kind of rivalries that <br> <br> are felt by fans on the terraces?MORE: David Maddock on why Mario doesn't fit in at LiverpoolWas the controversial shirt swap a metaphor for the lack of edge, aggression, needle and antipathy between players in the current era?Take last Saturday at St James' Park for example.<br> <br> Kick off was delayed an hour as a giant screen was repaired, and you'd <br> <br> imaging the two sides brooded around in the dressing room getting wound up.Far from it cheap nfl jerseys.

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